Foreclosure community blog resource powered by RealtyTrac : Real Estate Trends, Foreclosure Trends, Pre-Foreclosures

A Recovering Market without Govt Intervention

darenb — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:15:00 GMT

Free-market purists have to love the lead in The Washington Post story Friday about the real estate market in Prince William County, Va., a suburb of Washington, D.C.

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Foreclosure Flood Cresting?

darenb — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 09:00:00 GMT

Could a flood of foreclosures that began to swell last year be close to cresting? That could be a first-blush interpretation of the numbers in the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The chart below shows how the annual rate of increase in all three foreclosure actions tracked in the report -- defaults, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions -- slowed in August.

The rates of annual increase in defaults and scheduled auctions have been steadily slowing down each month this year, but this was the first month in which the rate of increase in bank repossessions (REO) has slowed since the beginning of the year. That seems to indicate (and please forgive this somewhat rambling analogy) that the torrent of defaults that began in earnest about 18 months ago may be working their way down the foreclosure river and spilling into the ocean of bank-owned inventory -- while the number of new defaults being added upriver is moderating. But alas, that would be labeled by many as a naively optimistic interpretation, given the possibility of another downpour of defaults looming from as much as $500 billion in outstanding option ARMs, many of which are expected to recast to higher payments in the next three years.

In addition, one must be careful about reading too much into a decreasing rate of increase. It's a bit like a politician arguing that a new budget will decrease spending when it's actually just slowing the rate of increase in spending. After all, the RealtyTrac report does show that foreclosure activity continues to increase across the board -- defaults, auctions and bank repossessions. And both the total number of properties with foreclosure filings (more than 300,000) and the foreclosure rate (one in every 416 U.S. properties received a foreclosure filing during the month) were the highest since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005.

View state-by-state data

Is Eight Enough?

darenb — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 09:00:00 GMT

The number of properties with some sort of foreclosure action against them (default notice, auction notice, bank repossession) has consistently risen for the past eight quarters (see chart). While there have been monthly fluctuations up and down during this time period, the quarterly numbers consistently have been up quarter over quarter, and the most recent quarter was no exception, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by RealtyTrac today.

And while this upward trend in foreclosure activity is driven largely by a few populous states with volatile housing markets, there's no doubt the pain is spilling over into many other areas across the country.

“Forty-eight of 50 states and 95 out of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter," said RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio in the press release announcing the Q2 report.

State governments that have gotten past the denial stage and actively addressed the foreclosure issue seem to be reaping the benefits of such foresight. One example is Colorado, whose foreclosure rate ranked No. 1 among the states in 2006, according to RealtyTrac. Some state officials initially took issue with the numbers, which engendered an important debate on how to accurately interpret and measure foreclosure data. But ultimately state officials took action by first investigating the foreclosure data themselves and then by working to curb foreclosures. The Colorado Division of Housing set up a foreclosure hotline to help people facing foreclosure. The state government enacted new laws addressing the issue, one of which gave homeowners more time on the front end of the foreclosure process to try to work out a way to stop or avoid the foreclosure.

Colorado's efforts appear to have had an impact. The state's foreclosure rate was down to No. 5 in the second quarter thanks in part to a 15 percent decrease in activity from the previous quarter. Activity was still up on a year-over-year basis, but at a much slower pace than the increase nationwide.

Late to the party as usual, the federal government is now trying to address the foreclosure issue as part of the mammoth housing bill making its way through Congress this week. President Bush has said he will sign the bill, which would allow many homeowners facing foreclosure to refinance into lower-cost, government-backed loans. The bill also earmarks $4 billion in grants for local communities to buy up foreclosed properties that may be negatively affecting the communities. Whether this bill will actually slow or stop the trend of rising foreclosures is up for debate. We'll certainly be watching to see if the third quarter foreclosure numbers translate into a ninth straight quarterly increase.

View Q2 state data.

View Q2 MSA data.

Foreclosure Activity Deflating or Just Deferred?

darenb — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:59:00 GMT

U.S. foreclosure activity in June decreased 3 percent from the previous month but was still up 53 percent from June 2007, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The 3 percent decrease may lead some to speculate that the upward trend in foreclosure activity may be nearing an end, but as RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio pointed out in a statement, the year-over-year change is a more indicative number of the overall trend.

"The year-over-year increase of more than 50 percent indicates we have not yet reached the top of this foreclosure cycle," he said.

In fact, the RealtyTrac report has shown month-to-month decreases in previous months, even during the dramatic run-up in foreclosure activity that has occurred over the past year and a half: in February 2008, November 2007, September 2007, June 2007, April 2007, and February 2007.

What may be a better argument -- although certainly not an ironclad case -- that the foreclosure surge is starting to run out of steam is the trend over the past 18 months in YOY percentage changes, broken down by type of foreclosure filing. As can be seen in the chart below, the default and auction categories experienced double- and triple-digit YOY percentage increases for much of 2007. But the increases in those categories started to slow down in 2008. Meanwhile, REO (bank repossession) activity actually decreased on a YOY basis in January and February of 2007 but gradually started to gain momentum in the second half of 2007, and increases in REOs have far outpaced the increases in defaults and auctions in all six months of 2008.

One could argue that this chart shows that the bulk of the properties that were at risk for foreclosure have migrated through the process and are now being repossessed by the foreclosing lenders. There is not a continued massive surge in defaults and auction notices, so once the lenders have disposed of their REO inventory, the real estate market can start to return to normal. On the other hand, some might argue that many properties are still at risk for falling into foreclosure, but the default notices against those properties may have been delayed by artificial means -- for example laws in Colorado, Maryland and Massachusetts requiring lenders to give homeowners more time before initiating foreclosure. Those artificial means may just temporarily be forestalling another wave of defaults that we'll see sometime in the coming months.

We'd like to hear if you buy into either of these theories or have another theory of your own that explains the foreclosure trends.

Foreclosure Downpour Continues in May

darenb — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 09:00:00 GMT

Foreclosure activity continued its upward climb in May, increasing on a year-over-year basis for the 29th consecutive month, according to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released today. The report showed one in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the month, the highest monthly foreclosure rate since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005.

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MBA Survey Confirms Q1 Foreclosure Surge

darenb — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:19:00 GMT

The first quarter MBA National Delinquency Survey released today largely supports the findings of the RealtyTrac Q1 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released at the end of April, which found overall foreclosure activity increased 23 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 112 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

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A (Relatively) Few Bad Apples Spoil the Barrel

darenb — Wed, 14 May 2008 09:00:00 GMT

According to the RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report issued today, the total number of properties with foreclosure activity in April reached the highest level on a monthly basis since RealtyTrac began issuing the report in January 2005.

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A Small Silver Lining in Q1 Foreclosure Storm

darenb — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 09:00:00 GMT

While foreclosure activity in the first quarter of 2008 was up on a year-over-year basis in 90 percent of the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas, according to the RealtyTrac Q1 report issued today, there were a few notable exceptions that could prove to be a harbinger of hope for the nation's battered housing market. On the other hand, those exceptions could just turn out to be a source of false hope, perpetuated in part by short-term foreclosure solutions that are about as effective as a five-gallon bailing bucket on the sinking Titanic.

The notable exceptions included Detroit — a longtime posterchild for the foreclosure meltdown — and Philadelphia, along with a few other Pennsylvania metro areas. Foreclosure activity in Detroit was down nearly 4 percent from the first quarter of 2007, although the city's foreclosure rate still ranked No. 6 among the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas. Philadelphia's foreclosure rate ranked No. 82, thanks in part to a 30 percent year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity.

Dispatches from Detroit indicate that free-market forces may be the catalyst. The Detroit Free Press reported that "Detroit home sales shot up 30.8% in March, spurred by investors taking advantage of low prices on foreclosed properties." Detroit home prices have hit a low enough threshold to become appealing to bargain buyers and investors. That in turn allows lenders to start unloading foreclosure inventory, easing a heavy burden that has been weighing down the city's housing market.

Different forces may be at work in Philadelphia, helping that city's foreclosure rate remain relatively low. A moratorium on all foreclosure sales scheduled in April there has now been replaced by a pilot program that delays foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the homeowner and lender meet in a "conciliation conference," according to the Philadelphia Business Journal. Foreclosure sales originally scheduled for April and May will be postponed until at least July.

Meanwhile, foreclosure activity continues to increase at a torrid pace in many of the now-familiar foreclosure hot spots: up 291 percent annually in Stockton, Calif., which posted the highest foreclosure rate among the 100 largest metro areas; up 134 percent in Las Vegas, No. 3 on the list; up 294 percent in Phoenix; and up 249 percent in Orlando.

View full Q1 2008 foreclosure report.

Bank-Repossession Beat Continues in March

darenb — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:00:00 GMT

For the third month in a row U.S. foreclosure activity registered at more than 50 percent above the level it was at a year ago, according to the March RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. And for the second month in a row, the number of bank repossessions, or REOs, was up more than 100 percent year over year.

The implication: while significantly more homeowners are falling into foreclosure, there is an even bigger increase in the number of homeowners already in the process who are losing their homes to foreclosure — whether through the typical foreclosure sale mechanism or whether by pre-empting the public foreclosure sale through what is called a deed in lieu of foreclosure.

In the latter case, the homeowner offers to convey ownership of the property to the foreclosing lender. The lender also has to agree to the DIL arrangement, which may involve clearing out other liens secured by the property. But that may be better than the alternative — a costly and lengthy process that will quite likely end with the bank repossessing the property anyway.

The year-over-year increase in bank repossessions was even more dramatic in some states: 619 percent in Arizona; 597 percent in New York; 557 percent in California; and 464 percent in Florida.

View full March report.

Foreclosure Salvation: By Grace or By Works?

darenb — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 18:08:00 GMT

With a speech given today in Philadelphia, Sen. Hillary Clinton reinforced her standing as the presidential candidate with the most far-reaching and concrete proposals calling for government intervention to save homeowners from the sins of greed and bearing false witness that were rampant in mortgage lending over the past few years. ...(read more)