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Faster Foreclosure Process = Quicker Home Price Recovery

There is an intriguing article in Bloomberg about how local markets with faster, non-judicial foreclosure processes tend to be recovering more quickly than local markets with slower, judicial processes. The article juxtaposed the real estate market in two Washington, D.C., counties: Fairfax County, Va., and Montgomery County, Md. The counties are very similar in size and demographics, but home prices in Fairfax County have increased 26 percent from a bottom in January 2009, while home prices in Montgomery County have increased less than half that much, up 12 percent from a bottom in January 2011, according to the article.

A key difference in the two counties is the differing foreclosure processes used in Maryland and Virginia. The Maryland foreclosure process goes through the court system, and is considered quasi-judicial. RealtyTrac data shows it takes an average of 634 days to complete a foreclosure in Maryland as of the fourth quarter of 2011, up from an average of 167 days back in the fourth quarter of 2007. Meanwhile, the average time to complete a foreclosure in Virginia, which allows for a non-judicial process that occurs outside of the court system, is 132 day as of the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 90 days in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The thesis of the article is that a faster foreclosure process has allowed the Fairfax County market to more quickly clear its distressed inventory, allowing home prices to bottom out and start heading higher sooner than in Montgomery County, where the slower foreclosure process weighed down home prices longer. Of course it helps that the Washington, D.C. market is relatively strong compared to other markets. Unemployment rates in both Fairfax and Montgomery are well below the national average. There has not been a strong home price recovery in areas like Las Vegas, Nev., and Stockton, Calif., even though both those metros are in states with the non-judicial foreclosure process.

A quick search on RealtyTrac for Fairfax County foreclosures and Montgomery County foreclosures shows that both counties have ample foreclosure inventory, with more than 1300 bank-owned homes in Fairfax County and more than 800 bank-owned homes in Montgomery County. Below are two examples of similarly sized foreclosure mansions available in each of the counties. Both appear to be good bargains, with the Fairfax County property in Alexandria, Va., listed for 27 percent below estimated market value, and the Montgomery County property in Silver Spring, Md., listed for 14 percent below estimated market value.

 

 

 

Posted: Fri, February 17 2012 12:00 AM by darenb

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# March 11, 2012 5:52 AM

Nathalia said:

Deborah Voelz,    Everyone is looking at what the utltmaie loss is going to be and whether it makes sense to hold off another year or two and mitigate the results.         The foreclosure process — and it is a process — now takes, on average, 18 months to two years, up from 15 months a year ago andBanks also  are allowing borrowers to be delinquent for longer and longer periods of time before initiating foreclosures,  Sharga said.          There are borrowers who are six or eight months in default; they may have exhausted their workout options; but they're put on a forbearance plan because it's an interim to a final resolution, which is foreclosure,  he said.  Banks don't want to take the losses now.         Deferring foreclosures could have bottom-line benefits, experts say. With fewer foreclosed properties hitting the market, housing prices have rebounded slightly. Moreover, properties might recover more of their value later on, so by waiting, banks may be able to cut their utltmaie losses.         Everybody is waiting to see what the market is going to do from a property price perspective,  Voelz said.  At some point, they have to liquidate these assets. and finallyHow banks account for delinquent mortgages is the subject of ongoing debate among regulators, bankers and auditors.           Banks are believed to be carrying a lot of loans at accounting levels well above their true market value,  he said.  But once a property goes into foreclosure, their options have disappeared.         Timothy Ward, the deputy director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, went so far as to send a letter to chief executives in May reminding them that banks must account for losses when a loan is 180 days or more past due.        Charging off loans  only at foreclosure or when deemed uncollectible  is considered  weak  and not in accord with generally accepted accounting principles, Ward reminded bankers.         This is the challenge the big banks have,   .  They're supposed to take the loss at 180 days, but the initial chargeoffs aren't that much and then we're seeing big REO losses              No one is encouraging banks to quickly book $75 million in losses and then take the heat for it, since they wouldn't have a job for very long,  he said.            despite the high redefault rate on modified loans, banks now see an advantage in modifying instead of foreclosing  because it cures the delinquency and they may get par value out of the loan, if property values are stable. Even if they get [only] a few payments, if property values go up, they could do a bit better once they take out the borrower.         The flip side is:  The more foreclosures there are, the worse the losses become down the road,  he said.        Though deferring foreclosures may help bridge a period of depressed revenues, losses still must be tallied eventually, said Cannon of Keefe Bruyette.         One of the oldest lines in banking is  the first loss is the best loss,'  he said.  That's what most lenders believe, but the question is, are they abiding by their own rule?    

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