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December 2008 - Posts

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

When the British rock band The Clash penned their only number-one single “Should I Stay Or Should I Go” in 1981 for their album Combat Rock, they never imaged the song would have serious implications for the 2009 U.S. housing market.

Today, many struggling homeowners, drowning under the strain of growing debt, are pondering the same question: Should I stay or should I go?

The lyrics reflect on the struggle of a rocky relationship and whether to stick it out or end it. Troubled homeowners are faced with this same dilemma, wondering whether:

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double

For those who are uncertain, California attorney Peter Fredman has a solution: the “Walk Away” calculator, which can help cash-strapped homeowners calculate the cost of staying versus the cost of going (walking away). Fredman’s calculator asks a series of financial questions, like the value of the home, the balance of the mortgage and three other questions. The calculator doesn’t factor in taxes and other expenses, but it does give homeowners an idea of how deep they are in debt and whether foreclosure is their most sensible option.

While some may see his calculator as irresponsible, others might consider the Walk Away calculator as a way to help struggling homeowners wrestling about whether they should stay or go.

Clearly making a decision on the direction of the real estate market right now is tricky.  But whatever homeowners decide, The Clash would certainly encourage them to:

Come on and let me know
Should I cool it or should I blow?

Published Wed, December 31 2008 11:27 AM by Octavion
Home Prices Continue Steep Decline

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to show a broad-based decline in the prices of existing homes nationwide for October, with 14 of 20 metro areas reporting double-digit declines from a year ago.

Compared to price levels in October 2007, the group’s 10-City Composite Index was down 19.1 percent while its 20-City Composite Index was down 18 percent on a yearly basis, with both indices setting new record lows in the process.

“The bear market continues with home prices back to their March 2004 levels,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “As of October 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 25 percent from its mid-2006 peak, and the 20-City Composite is down 23.4 percent.”

Three of the markets measured in the composites have entered the “double-digit” club for the first time. Those markets include Atlanta, reporting a 10.5 percent price decline, Seattle, reporting a 10.2 percent decline, and Portland with a 10.1 percent decline in home prices.

Since October 2007, three markets have given back more than 30 percent of their home values. Phoenix is the weakest, losing 32.7 percent of home values over the past year. Las Vegas was second, losing 31.7 percent of home values. Reporting a 31 percent loss of home values, San Francisco was the third weakest market. Next in line were Miami (where prices were down 29 percent), Los Angeles (down 27.9 percent) and San Diego (down 26.7 percent) over the past year.

All 20 metro areas covered by the Case-Shiller Indices suffered a second consecutive monthly decline in October, with Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington posting their largest monthly declines on record. However, Dallas and Charlotte posted the lowest monthly declines for October, reporting 3 percent and 4.4 percent price declines respectively.

 

Published Tue, December 30 2008 9:54 AM by joelc
Fed Action a No-Win, No-Brainer

 

Does it really surprise anybody that Ben Bernanke and his merry band of financial wizs over at the Federal Open Market Committee went extreme last week, taking its benchmark Federal Funds Rate to an all-time low of practically zero?

 

Something had to be done. And the current economic climate is a no-win situation for many Americans, given the increasing numbers of job losses and bankruptcy filings. So it makes the need for some further action by the Fed really a no-brainer for all intents and purposes.

 

Well, at least they’ve come up with something new and different this time. Instead of giving a definite point reduction, the Fed settled on establishing a first-ever “target range” of between zero and 0.25 percent.

 

A range? What does that really mean? Is the Federal Reserve as dumbfounded about what’s going on with the nation’s economy as the rest of us at this point? That’s what Realtors are doing nowadays when it comes to pricing property for sale. Instead of setting a definite price, they’re publishing a price range within which the seller will consider offers.

 

In these uncertain economic times it leaves room for a little flexibility. Maybe that’s what the Fed is looking for this time…a little wiggle room. Or maybe they just don’t want to commit to a definite number but would rather wait and see, once again, how things go.

 

A look at the Fed’s longer than usual official statement this time does not instill a lot of confidence either. In fact it shows a fair amount of skepticism for the first time when the FOMC comes out and says, “the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”

 

Besides telling us what we already know about job losses, declines in consumer spending, and an overall weak outlook for economic activity, the Committee is regurgitating its long-time forecast for further moderation in inflation in coming quarters.

 

The Labor Department just came out with its latest report showing consumer prices falling for the second consecutive month at the fastest rate on record since 1947, according to CNNMoney. It appears that inflation is indeed moderating, and to some extent the pendulum may be swinging too far in the other direction to the point of price deflation.

 

None of this is likely to have a lasting effect on the flow of foreclosures, however.

 

Even if mortgages rates do decline as a result, who’s going to be able to take advantage of them? The banks that are supposed to be stimulating the economy right now are hoarding the funds they’re receiving from the Treasury Department as part of the $700 billion bailout. They’re not lending the money like originally intended. And few people are qualifying for loans anyway given the high standards now set by the lending industry.

 

The Fed says it’s going to stimulate the economy by buying large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. Plus finding other ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity. Of course they’re doing this with taxpayer money in addition to the $700 billion already appropriated to do the same thing.

 

So how is this going to benefit anyone? The rate reduction may spur a brief onslaught of refinancings. Even then, in order to refinance a borrower has to qualify for a loan, and lenders aren’t so fast to dole out the funds right now.

 

Real estate investors who want to buy and flip foreclosures are having a tough time arranging financing for their potential buyers, no matter how good the deal is for the buyer. Buyers themselves are having little luck on their own obtaining financing. It’s a good thing that successful long-time investors have established relationships with private sources of funds or hard money lenders so they can continue to purchase properties. At least they can always buy and hold and cashflow the property at an appropriate rental rate.

 

So who really stands to benefit from this latest drop in rates by the Fed, if anyone?

 

Bernanke has job security until January 2010. Will the Obama Administration make a change at that time? Should they?

 

We’d like to know what you think!

 

Published Tue, December 23 2008 4:18 PM by joelc
Is Negative Equity Important?

As home prices continue to decline nationwide, many homeowners find themselves with negative equity, owing more on their loans than their houses are worth. Negative equity, or being “underwater,” exposes borrowers to foreclosure because they usually can’t refinance or sell their homes in a declining real estate market.

 

This is a huge problem because the numbers are staggering.

 

In 2006, there were approximately 3.5 million U.S. homeowners — or 7 percent of the 51 million households with mortgages — with no equity or negative equity, according to a recent report by First American CoreLogic. The next year, the number had jumped to 5.6 borrowers, or 11 percent of households. By September of 2008, 7.5 million mortgages, or 18 percent of all homes with mortgages, were underwater.

 

Several economists believe home prices need to fall further in order to make housing more affordable. MarketWatch chief economist Irwin Kellner says housing needs to fall another 20 percent, while Princeton economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman suggests a 30 percent decline is needed.

 

Assuming prices fall another 20 percent, there will be 10.2 million homeowners with negative equity. If prices fall 30 percent, the number would rise to 15.3 million.

 

What do all these numbers mean?

 

These numbers translate into colossal losses for lenders — and homeowners. It explains why banks aren’t lending and why we currently have a liquidity crisis in the financial markets. Banks are rational lenders. When they crunch these numbers they see an enormous potential for future foreclosures. And there’s a lot of bad debt out there.

 

Meanwhile, if you think the Federal government is going to “fix” the foreclosure crisis by cutting interest rates, they’re looking at the wrong end of the barrel.

 

Until house prices have finished falling and the financial institutions have come clean on how much bad debt they have on their books, many homeowners will continue to drown in debt and foreclosure activity will keep rising.

Published Wed, December 17 2008 2:14 PM by Octavion
Most Buyers Expect At Least 25 Percent Discount on Foreclosures

More than three-quarters of all buyers expect a discount of at least 25 percent on a foreclosure purchase, according to survey results released today by RealtyTrac and Trulia. The survey also showed that 30 percent of adults expected a discount of 50 percent or more with a foreclosure purchase.

The expected discount may be a compensation of sorts for the perceived negative aspects that a growing number of buyers associate with foreclosure purchases. According to the survey, 80 percent of  buyers believe there are negative aspects to buying a foreclosure, up from 69 percent in April 2008. Less than half of buyers surveyed -- 47 percent -- said they would consider buying a foreclosed home, down from 54 percent in April.

Despite these trends, however, there is no doubt that sales of properties in some stage of the foreclosure process are growing and accounting for a bigger percentage of overall sales. Nationwide, sales of properties in some stage of the foreclosure process in the 12-month period ending Dec. 1, 2008, increased 103 percent from the previous 12-month period. Although that did not translate into a notable decline in average sales price on a national level (average foreclosure sale price went from $210,251 to $209,413), median prices on foreclosure sales did drop substantially in some states hit hard by foreclosures. The median foreclosure sales price was down 30 percent year over year in California, down 23 percent in Florida and down 25 percent in Nevada.

View full release.

 

 

Published Tue, December 16 2008 12:36 PM by darenb |
November Foreclosures: Naughty or Nice?

RealtyTrac released its November foreclosure numbers today and they show foreclosure activity for the month decreased 7 percent from the previous month, down to the lowest level since June (although it was still up 28 percent from November 2007). At first glance this appears to indicate that all the attention to foreclosure prevention on the part of lenders, government entities and others recently may be helping to keep more homeowners from falling into foreclosure. But there are some ominous signs on the horizon that the decrease may simply be the calm before the storm.

“Delinquencies on loans not yet in the foreclosure process jumped to nearly 7 percent in the third quarter, a record high, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer at RealtyTrac. ”And more than half of the homeowners who received loan modifications to reduce monthly mortgage payments in the first half of 2008 are already delinquent on their loans again, according to the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision. Many of these delinquencies could turn into foreclosures next year.”

View video of panel discussion at National Housing Forum on Dec. 8 with John M. Reich, Director, Office of Thrift Supervision, Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, John C. Dugan, Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Donald L. Kohn, Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, James B. Lockhart III, Director, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Dugan talks about the "re-default" rate at about the 20-minute mark, saying that "over half of all mortgage modifications seem not to be working after just six months."

 

 

Published Wed, December 10 2008 11:47 PM by darenb |