It’s clear the new federal legislation and the lender initiatives will make it very difficult to pull meaningful trends from these statistics. But perhaps after the moratorium subsides, we will see what most have suspected all along — an extended crisis.

Colin

Seems the state legislature is very pleased when it sees people suffer for long time. The new law is not even a band aid. It is just pushes the disaster back a few months. What are they going to do after the extra time is used up? Foreclosure notices will jump again. Are they planning on another push back?

Number of foreclosure will hit its peak after all disqualified home buyers default on their mortgages. When that time arrives, the real turning point or plateau will be reached. That is the point when buyers will regain confidence with the housing market. The idea of supply and demand will show its magic hand in the housing market. The U.S. has been the pioneer of the free market. This is the free market in work now and we try to interfere with its course. If the lawmakers want to interfere the free market, why didn't they come up with a law in 2003 to prevent explosion of home values that last 4 years? May be this is something we should think about in the future.

There will be a big spike next month. This bill only delays the inevitable. As more and more people lose their jobs, notices of default (NODs) will go through the roof.

Josh

Focus upon the zip code specific valuation metrics when seeking resilient geographical areas that have little or no exposure to the subprime underwriting methodology. Then a market analysis is performed complimented with the tax record to provide a forensic review of compelling value. This can all be done quite quickly with Realtors that make a market in distressed inventory. We always tell our buyers that it must be a compelling value and the home makes your heart beat faster. Investors and first time homebuyers own this recovery — at a pace that reflects compelling value!

Joe Henry
bankowned@longandfoster.com
(571) 282-8249
Fairfax County/Northern Virginia

Everyone keeps wanting to know when the market bottom is.  This article — Market Bottom? I Think Not — is pretty good!

Chris

I keep wondering what will happen to the potentially huge nventory of REO properties once the moratorium on foreclosures ends in early January. With mortgage money so difficult to obtain and the huge inventory of property for sale, increased numbers of REO properties will continue to drive prices lower. With the overwhelming majority of REO's being in an'uninhabitable' condition as defined by appraisers because utilities are off or they are in damaged/poor condition, who do they think will buy them? FHA's 203K program is not widely marketed and investors need 20-25% down to get a conventional rehab loan. All this tells me that non REO sellers are in for a very rough time. Price comparisons by prospective buyers online do not take these factors into account.As a result condition becomes everything for a 'market rate' seller. t's going to get worse before it gets better for all the lousy quality product out there. But... a good house in good condition in a good location that's priced right will still sell quickly.

All you fix and flippers out there, get that cash ready.

I just love real estate professionals (pumpers).  

Real estate will continue to fall for some period of time and we have not even come close to seeing the bottom for areas like Southern California.   Once the market bottoms, there will be plenty of inventory and time to get in, because prices are NOT going to rebound quickly.  By the time this is over, even people who bought homes 10 years ago may be underwater.  Is that going to create the environment for another rapid price appreciation.  I think not.

Stay far away from real estate.  Stay far away from any investment that does not generate solid cash flow.