A place where you can find out the latest real estate trends, comment and ask questions based on your experiences with the foreclosures market. In addition, we want this blog to develop into a community where you can connect and share ideas with others interested in the foreclosures market.

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January 2008 - Posts

Just Call Him ‘Bernanke the Savior’

The Federal Open Market Committee, led by beleaguered Chairman Ben Bernanke, lowered the short-term federal funds rate Wednesday down 50 basis points (half a percent) to 3 percent. That’s two hefty cuts — a combined 1.25 percent — in little more than a week! Way to go Ben!!!

But is it enough to save the faltering real estate market in this time of crisis? There were more than 1 million more foreclosure filings in 2007 than there were in 2006, and 2008 promises to be equally surprising in terms of foreclosure levels.

For its part, the Fed has wavered in its view of the crisis begrudgingly, early on calling it a “correction” in FOMC statements last year. In its latest statement the FOMC is now calling it a deepening “housing contraction!”

You can use all the “C” words you want Ben, but housing usually leads the country in and out of economic “recession” (that “R” word you refuse to give into) and bluntly some areas of the country are probably feeling like they are already there.

Frankly, not everybody believes these latest cuts are going to help. Either they are too little too late, or it’s going to take too long to figure out if they helped at all, and by then we may already be in a recession.

Talk to the folks in Detroit and Cleveland right now who are experiencing high levels of foreclosure activity and unemployment. Try to sell the notion that our present economy is sustainable and won’t take a further dip with out-of-control inflation to the vanishing middle class of America. Good luck Ben. You’ll need it!

Yes, the credit market has tightened its stranglehold on funds, and yes, the financial markets are hurting and under tremendous stress, but people need a place to live and more and more of them are losing their homes and seeking rental arrangements in this time of soaring rents, energy costs and food costs. Not a conducive environment for homeownership to say the least.

In any case, these latest interest rate adjustments are good news for people who can rightfully qualify for home mortgages these days — particularly investors looking to pick up some good bargains in local real estate markets around the country where less fortunate folk have already lost their homes to foreclosure.

Published Thu, January 31 2008 1:35 PM by joelc
Unraveling 2007 Foreclosure Numbers

More than 2.2 million foreclosure filings on nearly 1.3 million properties. A 75 percent increase in foreclosure activity from 2006. These are the headlines from RealtyTrac's 2007 year-end foreclosure report

But there's more to the story.

A closer look at fourth-quarter numbers included in the report show slightly divergent trends to close out the year (see charts below). While bank repossessions (REOs) spiked to more than twice the level they were at in the fourth quarter of 2006 and were up 35 percent from the third quarter of 2007, auction and default notices (when the homeowner still has a chance to stop the foreclosure) were actually down 6 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter — although they were still up a healthy 75 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006.

Does this mean that banks are giving more leeway to homeowners in distress, working with them to figure out better alternatives to foreclosure? Or it simply representative of a holiday lull in initiating foreclosure activity?

Auction & Default Notices by Quarter

REOs by Quarter

Where the rubber meets the road
All of the above is the view from the 50,000-foot level, but the story is as varied as a patchwork quilt when you start zooming into the county level, as the map below begins to demonstrate. There are certainly foreclosure hot spots in densely populated areas that are helping to drive state and national averages higher, while other areas are maintaining a relatively normal foreclosure rate. Consider that only nine states documented foreclosure rates above the national average for the year: Nevada, Florida, Michigan, California, Colorado, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona and Illinois. View state-by-state stats.

Click to enlargeThat's not to say there weren't hot spots in other states. Take for example  Manassas City, Va., which documented an annual foreclosure rate that was nearly 4.5 times the national average. Or Marion County, Ind., with a foreclosure rate nearly 3.3 times the national average. Or Shelby County, Tenn., with a foreclosure rate 2.7 times the national average.

But there were also plenty of areas with relatively low foreclosure activity, even in states with overall high foreclosure rates. Take Logan County in the heart of downstate Illinois, where foreclosure activity was down nearly 17 percent in 2007. A real estate agent from the town of Lincoln recently called in, bemoaning the fact that national and state foreclosure headlines don't reflect what's happening in her neck of the woods, which she said mostly avoided the risky loans susceptible to foreclosure and where she believes homes are still reasonably priced. Furthermore she believes the headlines of rising foreclosures are contributing to a weakening in her local market that is unfounded.

So we'd like to hear your take on these numbers. What did you see happening in the real estate market in your area in 2007? What is in store for 2008? Give us the good, the bad and the ugly. Just comment below to respond or start a new thread of conversation. 

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Published Tue, January 29 2008 2:12 AM by darenb
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Stockton Foreclosures in National Spotlight

Arguably the most influential television news magazine, 60 Minutes, last night spent more than 15 minutes — an eternity in television — focusing on the so-called Subprime Meltdown. The town they chose to use as a backdrop not surprisingly was Stockton, Calif., which ranked No. 1 in terms of nationwide metro foreclosure rates in both the third quarter and November, according to RealtyTrac.

Much of the 60 Minutes piece stuck with the standard storyline: greedy lenders offered piles of money to anyone who could fog a mirror without really caring if the loan could or would be repaid. That's because the lenders could easily turn around and sell the loans to greedy Wall Street firms who wrapped up the loans in pretty packages and sold them to investors.

However, to their credit, the producers of the piece also included one contributing factor to the unfolding debacle that is not emphasized much in the media: the greed of the homeowners and investors who took advantage of these loans, and the ability of many of those people to walk away from the properties without feeling much immediate pain in their pocketbooks. That's because many of these buyers took out 100 percent financing, so the only money they've shelled out for the property is the monthly mortgage payments — which of course they have stopped paying if they are now in foreclosure. View video.

RealtyTrac will be releasing its December, fourth-quarter and year-end numbers tomorrow morning, and we'll have the full details posted on this blog immediately when they are released (5 a.m. EST, 2 a.m. PST). But for now, here's a little taste of what to expect from Stockton. Below is a map showing fourth-quarter foreclosure filings in the area, broken down by type of filing. We'd like to hear from folks in and around Stockton about whether this represents what they're seeing in the area. And if you'd like a similar map of your area, submit your request via comment and we'll try to provide it for you.

 

Published Mon, January 28 2008 11:33 AM by darenb
Lower Mortgage Rates Won’t Stem Foreclosures

Will the Federal Reserve’s rate cut revive the housing market and stem foreclosures?

Don’t count on it.

The Fed’s interest rate cut is largely symbolic. It makes more funds available to depository institutions — old-fashioned banks — but old-fashioned banks aren’t where the crisis is centered. The Fed’s move will do little for what ails the U.S. economy: Falling home prices, tighter lending standards, rising foreclosures and the ever-growing number of unsold houses on the market.

Nor will President George W. Bush’s $150 billion economic stimulus plan prevent Americans from losing their dream of homeownership to foreclosure. The Fed’s move will spark an avalanche of refinancing for homeowners with good credit. But that won’t necessarily translate into lower mortgage costs for some 2 million Americans with risky subprime home loans with rates that are scheduled to adjust sharply higher over the next year. Many subprime borrowers have mortgages larger than what the properties are worth, ruling out the possibility of refinancing from an adjustable rate loan into a fixed mortgage rate.

For the economy to rebound, home values have to return to historic norms. Slowly, home prices are beginning to fall back to more reasonable levels. Over the last year, home prices in the U.S. have fallen by about 6 percent on average, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of housing prices, which measures the value of homes in 20 cities.

So, expect a rising tide of foreclosures to continue to add inventory to an already over-saturated housing market. A growing inventory of unsold houses, in turn, will pull down home values, dragging more homeowners into foreclosures as prices drop. Spooked buyers, waiting for the housing market to bottom out, will nervously wait on the sidelines — further depressing prices.

For foreclosure investors and homebuyers this year could be a great opportunity to buy at bargain prices.

Published Sat, January 26 2008 11:42 AM by Octavion
Angry Neighbors Take Lender to Court

In what may end up being a precedent-setting test case, the Star Tribune is reporting that a northern Minneapolis neighborhood is suing CitiMortgage over a foreclosed property that has remained vacant, alleging that the deteriorating state of the property is bringing down their property values.

The lawsuit, filed by the non-profit Foreclosure Relief Law Project, alleges “negligent and improvident lending practices” were used to finance the purchase of the property on 31st Avenue N. Located in what the Star Tribune calls the “epicenter of the Twin Cities foreclosure crisis,” the empty two-story house has garnered numerous 911 calls to police and fire departments, and has been tagged for un-mowed grass, weeds and rubbish.

The neighborhood has attempted to contact the lender but to no avail. Prentiss Cox, a law professor at the University of Minnesota, told the Star Tribune that one of the biggest initial hurdles the lawsuit faces is establishing that the neighborhood “has standing to sue as an entity harmed by the mortgage deal.”

The cities of Baltimore and Cleveland have recently sued national lenders to recover millions of dollars lost due to increased foreclosure activity from the deceptive lending practices of the recent past.

RealtyTrac will continue to follow this story as it progresses through the legal system. Stay tuned!

Published Fri, January 25 2008 8:15 AM by joelc
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Annual U.S. Home Price Drop First in 40 Years

The National Association of Realtors today reported a 1.4 percent drop in U.S. median home prices for 2007, from $221,900 in 2006 to $218,900 in 2007. It was the first drop in national home prices in the 40 years that NAR has been surveying median home prices, according to MarketWatch.

“Although no hard data are available, most economists believe median home prices hadn't fallen since the Great Depression of the 1930s,” according to the MarketWatch story.

In its press release announcing the December numbers and 2007 numbers, NAR said home prices slowing the most in higher cost markets created a “downward distortion to the national median.”

And despite a 22 percent year-over-year drop in existing home sales in December, in the lead sentence of its press release, NAR touted “total sales in 2007 at the fifth highest on record.”

Home prices are closely tied to foreclosure activity (see graph), so this news from the industry bastion of optimism would indicate that foreclosures will continue at a high level into 2008. As home prices drop, homeowners in financial distress lose equity leverage to sell or refinance their homes to avoid foreclosure.

And at the risk of sounding like I’ve put NAR’s rose-colored glasses on, all this bad news for the market could be good news for contrarians — homebuyers who want to buy low and are willing to see their equity diminish in the short-term but come out way ahead in the long term, or investors who are able to buy properties low enough to either still flip for a profit (despite the sluggish market) or at least cash flow as rentals.  

Published Thu, January 24 2008 12:01 PM by darenb
Pets Left to Suffer Foreclosure Woes

As more families around the nation come face to face with the daily realities of economic distress, and the possibility of being foreclosed and evicted from their home lingers overhead, family pets are increasingly becoming victims without a voice.

An article in the Chicago Tribune addresses how while some Chicago homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure are turning their pets into local animal shelters, in the most inhumane and disgusting cases people are vacating their homes and leaving their pets to starve, either too embarrassed to admit they are in foreclosure, or figuring the animals will be found and taken care of. In either case the scenario has turned tragic for dogs, cats, birds, horses and other animals.

“Abandoning pets for any reason, is not only irresponsible — it is illegal,” said Stephanie Shain, director of outreach for companion animals at The Humane Society of the United States, in a statement released by the organization early this month.

The HSUS press release offers good, responsible alternatives including foster care for animals.

Being forced to move into a rental property that does not accept pets, or not being able to afford to live in one that does, is no excuse for leaving pets — which many people consider to be another member of the family.

There is help available. All it takes is a phone call or a search on the Internet for solutions. If you’re looking at a situation like this, use those tools and get help. Foreclosure effects EVERYONE in the family — human and otherwise.

 

Published Thu, January 24 2008 9:45 AM by joelc
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Come On! Say It Mr. Bernanke! It Starts With an ‘R’

Check the latest newscast and it looks like the rest of the world’s financial markets are at least spooked by the prospect that it may happen. Yet, Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the Federal Open Market Committee won’t say it (not in their official statements at least). Maybe they save it for so much office water cooler gossip, or behind closed door discussion with “W” at the White House.

Still, the Fed refuses to give into the concept that we are very likely headed for a dive into a RECESSION!!!

In a move that has not been seen in decades, the FOMC on Monday decided to make a rate cut ahead of its regularly scheduled meeting, taking the federal funds rate down 75 basis points to 3.5 percent. And the committee may follow it up with another rate cut next week during its regular meeting as well.

The FFR is the short term interest rate banks charge each other overnight to borrow money. These cuts could end up impacting consumers in the wallet in the form of lower mortgage rates (the upside), as well as higher credit cards rates, and lower interest rates on savings accounts (some of the downsides).

The question is: is this latest cut, which wasn’t expected by most people until the FOMC’s next meeting, more of a way to stem the severe bear market trends on Wall Street? Or was it more of a reaction to the fact that many financial experts don’t believe Mr. Bush’s $145 billion economic stimulus package announced a few days ago will do anything to pull us up by our bootstraps — allowing the Fed to save face while not admitting that a recession is almost here (if not here already by some accounts)?

In its statement the Fed admits that the housing “contraction” is deepening and labor markets are softening. If last month’s employment numbers are any indication, along with companies like Yahoo! announcing its plans to lay off hundreds of employees in the near future, we are getting dangerously close to compiling all of the factors that led to the recession of the early 1990s. High foreclosures, job losses, an upward trend in bankruptcy filings. The only factor from that time we haven’t seen is high interest rates — at least not yet anyway.

We’ll have to wait until next week to see if any of the economic stimulus proposals are really going to help homeowners either in foreclosure or on the cusp of going into foreclosure. In the meantime, hold onto your hats. We’re in for a bumpy ride!

Published Wed, January 23 2008 12:15 PM by joelc
Rising Foreclosures Force Bush to Call for $145 Billion Stimulus Plan

With foreclosures helping to push the economy to the brink of recession, President George W. Bush unveiled a $145 billion economic stimulus plan today that includes tax relief for individuals and tax incentives for businesses. President Bush, acknowledging the risk of recession, embraced a sweeping tax relief plan to give the economy a “shot in the arm.”

President Bush didn’t reveal specific components of the plan, but The Wall Street Journal claims that it includes tax relief for individuals — probably to come in the form of one-time $800 rebate for individuals and $1,600 for households. Moreover, the plan could include tax breaks for businesses, including small companies, to make new and major investments this year.

“We’re in the midst of a challenging period, and I know Americans are concerned about our economic future,” said Bush in a prepared statement.

But as the shadow of recession spreads across the country, views are mixed on whether an economic stimulus plan will avoid a recession.

Do you think a recession is coming (or already here)? Will foreclosures drive the economy into a recession?

Published Fri, January 18 2008 2:11 PM by Octavion
Country Wide, and 81,000 Deep

There's been a lot of buzz about government-sponsored initiatives to help save homeowners from the prospect of looming foreclosure. Unfortunately, the initiatives have proven to offer more hype than hope; at last count, according to CNBC's Diana Olick, the FHA Secure program had managed to write between 299 and 600 loans. In a quarter when RealtyTrac reported that over 600,000 foreclosure filings were issued, that doesn't even qualify as a very small drop in a very large bucket.

Meanwhile, the question is constantly asked: Are the lenders doing anything to help solve the problem? And Countrywide, largely believed to be the single biggest issuer of the dreaded sub-prime ARM loans, has been the press's favorite target. Which makes today's press release from the once high-flying company very interesting.

According to the release, Countrywide has re-worked nearly 81,000 loans in 2007, with over 61% of these loans being modified (banker-speak for "we changed the terms of the loan so that the homeowner could afford the payments"). Now I know that press releases need to be viewed for what they are, and I'm not suggesting that we erect statues of Angelo Mozilo in town squares across the country. But for people yearning for substantive results instead of politically-pleasing platitudes, 81,000 seems to be a lot more attractive a number than 600.

What might be a really interesting undertaking would be for the lenders and loan servicers who are having some success in home retention activities to compare notes and share some of the tactics that are working best. The problem we're facing was created in large part -although not exclusively - by the mortgage industry itself; the most likely solutions - working solutions - will probably come from this group as well.

If anyone knows of other lenders having success in helping homeowners stay in their homes, I'd love to hear about it.

 

Published Wed, January 16 2008 4:06 PM by rsharga
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