Wednesday, August 15, 2007 10:00 AM
The Fed Rate Decision is ‘Ongoing’
posted by
joelc
The Federal Reserve is starting to sound like a broken record. Oops! Excuse me! CD. Have to be PC for the Gen-Xers and Yers, who, “BTW” are used to faster and easier, while text messaging everything in coded language.
It seems like the Fed is falling into that generation gap-built trap as well. Every time Mr. Bernanke's group, the Federal Open Market Committee, meets nowadays everything seems to be in code.
For example, for 17 consecutive meetings the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percent each time (25 basis points in economist lingo), and the code word they used to justify those rate increases was adjustment.
Now it’s been a series of “let’s freeze frame the economy at 5.25 percent and see where it goes from here,” and here, and here, and here, and here…and the code word the Fed governors are using these days is ongoing. They did it again just last week!
When I was in business school at the University of Southern California we spoke of an “ongoing concern” meaning a business enterprise of supposedly infinite duration. In other words, the business would, hopefully, continue to prosper indefinitely.
For months now, part of the Fed’s official justification for keeping the Federal Funds rate at 5.25 percent has been “…the housing correction is ongoing.” What does that mean? Does it mean that the nation’s real estate market’s bubble finally burst to such an extreme that they have no idea of when it might turn around? Is it unforeseeable? Indefinite? Maybe it won’t happen if you wish upon a star long enough? If they don’t know, who does? They’re the ones with their hands on the nation’s purse strings!
Then the Fed’s release goes on to say that “the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain” inflationary pressures on the national economy, although the Fed is hoping those pressures will moderate over time. Again, more code? Does it mean we may yet be facing a recession in the future (however mild or wild it may turn out to be)? The Fed hopes not, that’s for sure. And so does the real estate industry.
Even the National Association of Realtors, which originally thought the nation’s housing market would turn around significantly by year-end 2007, is pulling back a bit on its forecast, now calling for home sales to stabilize where they are this year, with noticeable improvement in sales activity by mid-2008.
So as it turns out, ongoing is a good word for investors and first-time homebuyers looking for a decent discount on a home in this buyer’s market. The longer this “correction” is ongoing, the longer investors and serious homebuyers have to find a bargain property, and still at near historically low interest rates (although qualifying for a loan these days has been made much tougher thanks to the mess left from the subprime lending fiasco).
Also, the longer the correction, the longer the present high inventory of homes will last — just more of a selection to choose from.
As the fallout of the subprime mess continues to reveal itself, RealtyTrac is a great information provider to inspect that growing inventory of properties and locate those hidden gems just waiting to be purchased at significant discounts.